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Major CPG Portfolio

[Brand]

4 AI PLATFORMS · 20 RUNS · FOUR-TURN CONTROLLED SUBSTITUTION TEST
⚠
Severe: Systemic Decision-Stage Displacement — 90% Replacement Rate
[Brand] is consistently eliminated from AI purchase recommendations before the decision stage. The product is found and initially included, but never selected as the final recommendation. Olay Regenerist captures 70% of all displacements.
Overview
Platform Detail
Competitor Analysis
Remediation
Conversational Survival Rate
0%
Zero primary retention at T3
First Failure Point
T2
100% initiation at optimization stage
Replacement Rate
90%
18/20 runs · 2 weakened survivors
Cross-Platform Consistency
90%
Minor ChatGPT late-stage variance
Primary Threat
Olay Regenerist
70% of all displacements

Conversational Funnel — Product Survival

0% Primary Survival
T0
Present in 100% of initial responses
100%
PRIMARY
T1
Weakened — reframed as supportive/secondary
100%
WEAKENED
T2
0%
REPLACED
T3
2 weakened
10%
MARGINAL
↓
Narrative demotion pattern: [Brand] is consistently reframed from "viable choice" to "supportive/secondary option" at T1 before being displaced by products positioned as more effective or better-formulated at T2. This is not an awareness failure — the product is found but consistently deprioritized.

Cross-Platform Consistency

Near-Systemic Failure
ChatGPT
P
W
R
3R 2W
3/5 REPLACED
2 runs → W at T3
▲ Mixed replacer set
Gemini
P
W
R
R
5/5 REPLACED
→ Olay Regenerist
Perplexity
P
W
R
R
5/5 REPLACED
→ Olay Regenerist Retinol 24
Grok
P
W
R
R
5/5 REPLACED
→ Olay Micro-Sculpting
Dominant Erosion Pattern (90% of runs)
P
T0
Listed as viable option
W
T1
Reframed as secondary
R
T2
Displaced by "better" product
R
T3
Loss confirmed

Competitive Displacement Map

Dominated by Single Rival
Replacement Concentration
Olay Regenerist 70%
CeraVe
LRP
Other
Replacing Product Displacement Share Type
Olay Regenerist (various)
70%
Direct substitution
CeraVe Retinol / Resurface
10%
Direct substitution
La Roche-Posay Retinol B3
10%
Direct substitution
Neutrogena Rapid Wrinkle Repair
5%
Direct substitution
Paula's Choice / Medik8
5%
Tiered potency
Direct Substitution
90%
Single named "best" product replaces [Brand]
Tiered Potency
10%
Higher-strength retinoid specialist replaces

Risk Classification & Failure Modes

Severe
Late-stage decision riskSevere
Narrative fragilityHigh
Model sensitivityLow
Competitive exposureConcentrated
Recovery potential (observed)Minimal
Failure Modes
✕
Attribute-driven substitutionDETECTED
✕
Decision-stage compressionDETECTED
✕
Narrative demotionDETECTED
✓
Silent omissionABSENT
✓
Model-specific biasABSENT

ChatGPT — Minor Late-Stage Variance

5 RUNS · 60% REPLACEMENT · 2 WEAKENED SURVIVORS · MIXED REPLACERS
C8-CG-REV-01
P
W
R
R
→ Replaced
C8-CG-REV-02
P
W
R
R
→ Replaced
C8-CG-REV-03
P
W
R
R
→ Replaced
C8-CG-REV-04
P
W
R
W
↑ Weakened (not fully displaced)
C8-CG-REV-05
P
W
R
W
↑ Weakened (not fully displaced)

Gemini

5 RUNS · 100% REPLACEMENT · UNIFORM → OLAY REGENERIST
C8-GM-REV-01
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Regenerist
C8-GM-REV-02
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Regenerist
C8-GM-REV-03
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Regenerist
C8-GM-REV-04
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Regenerist
C8-GM-REV-05
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Regenerist

Perplexity

5 RUNS · 100% REPLACEMENT · UNIFORM → OLAY REGENERIST RETINOL 24
C8-PX-REV-01
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Retinol 24
C8-PX-REV-02
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Retinol 24
C8-PX-REV-03
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Retinol 24
C8-PX-REV-04
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Retinol 24
C8-PX-REV-05
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Retinol 24

Grok

5 RUNS · 100% REPLACEMENT · UNIFORM → OLAY MICRO-SCULPTING
C8-GR-REV-01
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Micro-Sculpting
C8-GR-REV-02
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Micro-Sculpting
C8-GR-REV-03
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Micro-Sculpting
C8-GR-REV-04
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Micro-Sculpting
C8-GR-REV-05
P
W
R
R
→ Olay Micro-Sculpting
⚡
Key platform insight: While Gemini, Perplexity, and Grok unanimously select Olay Regenerist variants, ChatGPT shows a more mixed replacer set (CeraVe, La Roche-Posay, Olay) and is the only platform where [Brand] occasionally survives in weakened form at T3. This suggests ChatGPT's decision logic is slightly less decisive in the anti-ageing category — but critically, even on ChatGPT, [Brand] never returns to primary status.
Olay Regenerist
70%
Gemini (5/5 runs)Perplexity (5/5 — Retinol 24)Grok (5/5 — Micro-Sculpting)ChatGPT (partial)
Direct substitutionMass premium retinol leader
Olay Regenerist is the dominant winner when [Brand] is displaced — appearing across all four platforms in different product variants. Each AI system selects a specific Olay SKU that maps to its decision logic: Gemini favors the core Regenerist line, Perplexity specifically selects Retinol 24, and Grok selects Micro-Sculpting Cream. This variant-level specificity suggests AI systems have strong product-level preference hierarchies within the Olay portfolio.
CeraVe Retinol / Resurface
10%
ChatGPT
Derm-recommended positioning. Appears only on ChatGPT where [Brand] faces a more diverse competitive set.
La Roche-Posay Retinol B3
10%
ChatGPT
Sensitive skin positioning with pharmaceutical heritage. A sibling brand within the same parent portfolio — displacement within the group.
Neutrogena Rapid Wrinkle Repair
5%
Mass market retinol competitor. "Rapid" claims create urgency-based substitution.
Paula's Choice / Medik8
5%
Specialist retinoid tier — higher-potency positioning displaces [Brand] through a "step-up" narrative.
Key Intelligence
[Brand]'s competitive landscape reveals two distinct displacement mechanisms. The primary mechanism (90% of cases) is direct substitution — AI systems simply select a different mass-market anti-ageing product. The secondary mechanism (10%) is tiered potency substitution — where the AI "upgrades" the consumer to a specialist retinoid product, positioning [Brand] as entry-level.
Portfolio note: La Roche-Posay Retinol B3 is a sibling brand within the same parent portfolio — 10% of [Brand]'s displacement benefits a sister product, representing intra-portfolio cannibalization within AI recommendation systems.

Decision-Stage Positioning

Critical Priority · Immediate Action Required
[Brand] fails at the decision formation stage (T2) in 100% of runs. The product is never selected as the "best" anti-ageing option when AI systems shift from listing choices to making a recommendation. Remediation must create a defensible "best-for" positioning that survives multi-attribute comparison.
Evidence: 20/20 runs show R at T2. 0% primary retention at T3. Replacement initiated at optimization/decision stage in every case.

Attribute Reframing

Critical Priority
Displacement is triggered during optimization weighting — AI systems compare specific product attributes and [Brand] loses. The dominant replacer (Olay Regenerist at 70%) wins through what AI systems perceive as superior "balanced performance" positioning. [Brand] needs to reframe its key attributes so they are weighted first and valued higher in AI comparison logic.
Evidence: Attribute-driven substitution detected. Olay Regenerist variant specificity suggests AI systems have granular product-level preference hierarchies.

Narrative Reinforcement

High Priority
[Brand] is consistently reframed as "supportive/secondary" at T1 before being displaced at T2. Strengthening the T1 narrative could delay or reduce the T2 displacement rate. The two ChatGPT runs where [Brand] survived as W at T3 suggest that when narrative demotion is less decisive, full replacement doesn't always follow.
Evidence: 20/20 runs show W at T1. ChatGPT runs 4-5 show W (not R) at T3, indicating narrative resilience can reduce final displacement.

Competitive Counter-Positioning

High Priority
With 70% of displacements flowing to Olay Regenerist, counter-positioning is highly targeted. The variant-level specificity across platforms (Regenerist core, Retinol 24, Micro-Sculpting) suggests each platform weights different Olay strengths — a nuanced counter-strategy is needed.
Evidence: Olay Regenerist 70%. Gemini/Perplexity/Grok each select different Olay variants, indicating distinct attribute preferences per platform.

Model-Specific Tuning

Low Priority
Minimal divergence across models — all four platforms produce the same erosion pattern (P→W→R) with near-identical timing. Model-specific tuning is unlikely to yield significant improvements. Remediation should be model-agnostic.
Evidence: Outcome convergence: 90%. Timing convergence: Full (T2). ChatGPT late-stage variance is limited and does not represent recovery to primary.
Ready to remediate?
[Brand]'s concentrated competitive displacement creates a focused remediation opportunity. The AIVO Edge team will develop a targeted strategy addressing decision-stage positioning against Olay Regenerist specifically.
© 2026 AIVO Edge
AIVO Edge Methodology v2.1
Four-Turn Controlled Substitution Test
Dashboard data: 15 January 2026 · Next scheduled run: 15 February 2026